Why it still matters
The figures show a growing clean-heat market, but not a straight-line rise in demand. They also show how quickly new non-domestic work is moving away from direct-emission heating systems.
Who this affects
Heating engineers, electricians, heat-pump installers, designers, developers, landlords, social landlords and training providers.
What to do now
- Use local scheme pipelines and confirmed customer demand when planning capacity; the national figures are not a local sales forecast.
- Build competence around whole-system design, electrical capacity, emitters, controls, commissioning and aftercare rather than treating the heat pump as a like-for-like boiler swap.
- Check the warrant date and approved specification on each new-build project because the 2024 clean-heating rules will feed through gradually while existing warrants remain valid.
What the latest figures show
The Scottish Government reports 6,411 MCS-certified domestic heat-pump installations in 2025. That was 13% fewer than the 7,357 recorded in 2024, but nearly three times the 2,193 installed in 2019.
The report estimates that around 60,000 Scottish homes had a heat pump in 2024, equal to 2.4% of homes. It notes that this estimate comes from survey data and should be treated with the published confidence limits.
New buildings are moving faster
In 2025, 30% of new homes used clean heating: 17% used heat pumps, 7% heat networks and 6% other electric systems. Among new non-domestic buildings, the combined figure was 89%, including 47% with heat pumps.
Building warrants applied for from 1 April 2024 generally need a clean heating system. Warrants can remain valid for three years, so the change will continue to work through the construction pipeline rather than appearing in the figures all at once.
What this means for trades
There is a long-term shift towards clean heating, especially in new buildings, but the fall in certified domestic installations shows that firms should not assume demand will rise evenly every year. Training and investment decisions still need to be tested against local work, support schemes and confirmed project pipelines.
Warmer Homes Scotland installed 1,117 clean heating systems in 2025/26, its highest annual total, and reached its 50,000th customer in February 2026. Public programmes remain part of the market, alongside private retrofit and new-build work.
We read the original source, remove the ceremony and explain the practical consequence. This briefing is general information, not legal or professional advice. If the source changes, the official page takes priority.